# 因果的可操控理论

> 【EN】Manipulability theories of causation, according to which causes are to be regarded as handles or devices for manipulating effects, have considerable intuitive appeal and are popular among many scientists and statisticians. This article surveys several prominent versions of such theories advocated by philosophers, and the many difficulties they face. Until recently, philosophical statements of the manipulationist approach have generally been reductionist in aspiration and have assigned a central role to human action. These contrast with more recent discussions employing a broadly manipulationist framework for understanding causation, such as those due to the computer scientist Judea Pearl and others, which are non-reductionist and rely instead on the notion of an intervention. This is simply an appropriately exogenous causal process; it has no essential connection with human action. … 【中】词条梳理哲学家提出的几种主要版本，包括以人类行动为核心的能动性理论，以及用干预概念取代行动的版本，并讨论相关难题：与自由行动的关系、是否陷入循环、因果概念是否本就是复数的、不涉及人类行动的干预如何可能，以及干预与反事实之间的关系。

- ID: m13167
- 分类: technical
- 领域: 科学方法论

## 定义

可操控性理论把原因视为操控结果的把手或装置：若我们能通过改变某事物来改变另一事物，前者就是后者的原因。这种理论在科学家与统计学家中颇受欢迎，直觉吸引力很强，但哲学上系统表述它时却面临诸多困难。 脚手架作用：- 寻找把手：把问题转为该动哪个变量才能改变结果。 - 检验可操作性：判断某因果主张是否给出了可施行的干预手段。 - 警惕循环：提醒用行动定义因果时，别让行动又依赖因果。

## 机制

可操控理论抓住了因果与有效行动之间的实践联系：我们之所以关心因果，很大程度上是为了知道该怎样动手才能改变结果。把原因定义为可用来操控结果的变量，就把因果知识与实践能力绑定起来。困难在于，若用行动导致变化来定义因果，而行动本身又被理解为一种因果，定义便成了循环。

## 练习

1) 把候选原因表述为可设定的变量，而非一次性事件；2) 设计一次理想干预，只改变该变量、其他保持不变；3) 观察结果变量是否随之变化，若变化则支持因果主张；4) 检查这一干预是否预设了别的因果知识，若是，说明还需非操控性的因果概念作为补充。

## 脚手架用法

- 寻找把手：把问题转为该动哪个变量才能改变结果。 - 检验可操作性：判断某因果主张是否给出了可施行的干预手段。 - 警惕循环：提醒用行动定义因果时，别让行动又依赖因果。

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